On the Fear of Overpopulation

As regular readers well know I think that fears of overpopulation following healthy life extension are essentially ridiculous, on a par with raising the prospect of boredom as a reason to reject longevity science and thus force billions to suffer and age to death unnecessarily. Led by the hairshirt teachings of environmentalism perhaps a majority of people believe the world to be overpopulated today, but the regions usually pointed out as examples are characterized by terrible governance, poverty created by war and kleptocracy in the midst of a wealth of resources, human and otherwise, that go unused.

The common Malthusian vision of overpopulation - that we will run out of oil, or food, or land, or any other resource because there are more people - is driven at root by the failure to appreciate economics, how the world works and what drives human action. The world changes and people react to potential shortages and rising prices by developing new technologies and new resources. Those who cannot look beyond what exists today will always cry that the sky is falling, as they think in terms of dividing a fixed set of resources that never changes. Those arguments were made in every past era: the Roman age had its authors who thought that doom lay ahead if there were too many more people. In reality these views are always wrong, time and again. Even land is effectively unlimited given access to the rest of the solar system and sufficiently advanced construction technologies.

Many worry that radical life extension or the elimination of death will lead to overpopulation and ecological destruction. In other words, while it may be best for individuals to live forever, it might be collectively disastrous. However, I don't believe that overpopulation and its attendant problems should give researchers in this area pause. So I argue that we should try to eliminate death, dealing with overpopulation - assuming we even have to - when the time comes. My suggestions may be considered reckless, but remember there is no risk-free way to proceed into the future. Whatever we do, or don't do, has risks. If we cease developing technology we will not be able to prevent the inevitable asteroid strike that will decimate our planet; if we continue to die young we may not develop the intelligence necessary to design better technology. Given these considerations, we shouldn't let hypotheticals about the future deter our research into defeating death. The tragedy of 150,000 people dying every single day - 100,000 of them from age-related causes - is a huge price to pay for speculative hypotheses about the future.

Note too that this objection to life-extending research could have been leveled at work on the germ theory of disease, or other life-extending research and technology in the past. Don't cure diseases because that will lead to overpopulation! Don't treat sick children because they might survive and have more children! I think most of us are glad we have a germ theory of disease, and treat sick children. Our responsibility is to help people live long, healthy lives, not worry that by doing so other negative consequence might ensue. We are glad that some of our ancestors decided that a twenty-five year life span was insufficient, instead of worrying that curing diseases and extending life might have negative consequences. Most importantly, I believe it is immoral for us to reject anti-aging research and the technologies it will produce, thereby forcing future generations to die involuntarily. After anti-aging technologies are developed, the living should be free to choose to live longer, live forever, or even die young if they want to. But it would be immoral for us not to try to make death optional for them.

Link: http://reasonandmeaning.com/2015/02/10/answering-the-overpopulation-objection-to-living-forever/

Comments

It seems to me that more people and countries are concerned about the opposite problem these days. A too low birth rate and not enough young people.

Posted by: Abelard Lindsey at February 10th, 2015 10:07 AM

Fears of overpopulation are a good example of something I have seen over nearly 20 years of reading and posting online.

When people are ignorant of what goes on in the world, life seems pretty good, like I don't know anyone who died in terrorism, food comes from the grocery shelf, and I have never in my whole life seen a shortage of food, etc.

But when people get a little bit of knowledge, like the first 5 years of reading about the broader world, they almost always turn into doomers. Peak oil, overpopulation, water running out, financial crisis, disease outbreak, etc. Its what the media sells, as ordinary trends although supremely powerful in the long run are quite boring day to day, even year to year.

Its only people who have been reading and discussing for >5 years and usually >10 years who grow from doomers into optimists.

Like with peak oil, back in 1997 I was worried about peak oil, but ironically by the time demand did outweigh supply for a time ~2007, I wasn't worried at all about it. I knew the market and human beings would just respond in an endless possible number of ways to respond. One response was the global oil industry began spending $1 trillion dollars a year on capital expenditure.. rising prices, leading to rising investment - pretty simple concept really.

The same will be true of fears of rising population. We already see the adjustments in densely populated places like Hong Kong, where people simply have fewer children.

To me the fear of overpopulation when the subject of rejuvenation technologies comes up shows a person is in that first 5-10 years of learning about the world. They know enough to be worried, but not enough to know why those worries are unfounded.

Another irony is that the completely ignorant person is closer to the very well read and wise person. Both use common sense to know that turning back the clock on aging is the greatest dream and goal of mankind - and neither worry about possible problems with it.

Posted by: aa3 at February 10th, 2015 12:13 PM

Not to mention the global fertility rate has been falling for decades and continue to do so. It's only slightly above replacement rate as of 2014.

Posted by: jen at February 11th, 2015 6:07 PM

Like jen said, fertility rate has been falling dramatically in the last half century, so if this trend continues:

Humankind could risk dying out if we don't develop life-extending technologies:
http://haakonsk.blogg.n/1424053138_humankind_could_risk_.html

Posted by: haakonsk at February 16th, 2015 4:18 PM
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