Fight Aging!

'There is much left to do if we are to build the means of radical life extension in our lifetimes.'

that dosent sound good

But don't forget about LEV. Aubrey said LEV around 2035. You just need to stay in good shape and being younger than 60 years old until 2035 to get more sophisticated therapies in the 2050s.

Exactly why I am pessimistic. He said " there is much left to do", and " we still only have about 50% lev", that doesn't mean we get to it.

50% of the LEV will be from senolytics, 50% from CRISPR therapies and stem cell therapies. We get those 3 types of therapies in just 10 years, even sooner for senolytics.

That's not how he placed his predictions lol, it was 50% of getting all the sens therapies working last time I remember, which would THEN get us to LEV. Also, stem cells are an absolute meme, we don't know how to direct them at all to be effective.

@Dokuganryu which is why I predict more like 30 years to all the SENS therapies working. but I think 18 is a real possibility if you check out the rejuvenation roadmap at lifespan.io

You know the rejuvenation roadmap is nonsense as well? Seeing as some pretty important stuff haven't moved at all - OSKM for example. Also what about cut off age? In 30 years, I am 54, quite late for me and for you guys as well.

AdG was a bit laconic, but it was an interesting interview anyway.

My goodness, talk about a Rorschach Test into our innermost personalities! If you're a pessimist, then like Zeno's dichotomy paradox, we will never arrive at LEV. If you are more of an optimist like me, then there has never been a more exciting time to be alive (disregarding politics & climate change). It was only 30 years ago that the first life-extending mutant in c.elegans was found - now hardly a week goes by without it being demonstrated in a murine model. To take the above commentator's example, OKSM and its derivatives are moving ahead at breathtaking speed, with some crazy results coming out soon. And we can actually do things NOW - we can boost NAD+, we can inhibit mTOR, we can take senolytics. What could be available to early adopters in the next ten years is mind-boggling.

But this is not to say we can be complacent - now more than ever, we need to make the final push: invest, donate, advocate! But for goodness sakes be positive - there is no way we can change people's minds, and get more investment, and get more research, and get more progress if we are all doom and gloom. People want to back a winning cause, and we are starting to win this war. It might not be the beginning of the end, but it is certainly the end of beginning (to quote a random person).

50% chance of reaching LEV BY 2035 is just a simple illustration. What is more interesting what would be the estimates for 2 and 3 sigmas confidence by the year X. Scientific and technological progress is not linear nor do they follow the normal distribution.

But let's say , for the sake of illustration, until there's a critical mass, the progress follows the normal distribution. .67 sigma confidence would be about 50% chance at 2035. But how many more years world be needed to reach 1 standard deviation, and 2 or 3. I would say ( pulling the numbers out of thin air) that by 2075 the aging should be solved with 3to5 sigma confidence. Let's say 4 sigma, so each decade after 2035 adds another standard deviation of confidence. Then the chances could be:

2035 : 50%
2045: 68% ( should be more but let's say the first ten years just move us from 0.67 to 1 sd)
2055: 95%
2065: 99%
2075. 99.99%

The numbers are a bit arbitrary but they kinda illustrate what percentage of the people alive by that year could reach LEV.

I am 80 by 2075, also Aubrey talked that sens might not work for people in certain ages. Aging reversal won't be working as in sci-fi. Also if you aren't pessimistic when he says " this is why I say we still have only about 50%", then you aren't optimistic but naive and don't realize what amount of work and knowledge is needed. You all are imagining this to go as in sci-fi movie, NAD +, senolytics etc won't prevent you from not getting heart failure, brain diseases or cancer. Good luck with that. It's not about mindset, it's what realistically possible, if you spend some time reading about biology and looked into what all goes wrong in the body then you wouldn't realize it's way harder than this. Love how Aubrey also kinda ignores pretty important things like leaky gut or blood vessels in the brain :)

@Dokuganryu

When you are 20 y. young, 50 years old sounds like being a living fossil. But at that age you still function more or less ok. You have back pains, some conditions, but generally still can enjoy life. And the aging comes slowly. Where whould you draw the line of not being able to endure it any more? Having advanced Alzheimer's... Then you are already half dead as a person. Or an excruciating pain? Or high monetary burden on your loved ones. Those justify suicide. Having knee and back pain and having a few wrinkles dies not at all. The power distribution of the costs (and suffering) leans heavily on the last few years. So if you say that the cutoff is the last couple of years, then the previous years will have a similar distribution.

But anyway. Being young, healthy, smart , attractive and, rich is better than being poor, old, sick and ugly. But you can't have it all, and for long. That's how we have learned to make peace with it. But even with the suffering that the aging brings there's quite of value in the life. Don't you want to see the first human landing on Mars? Or how your kids/grandkids grow?

@Chris Linnell: You've summed it up well there, again! Some people on this site are so entrenched in their beliefs that whatever is presented by Reason, they go back to that belief.

@Cuberat

I don't care about space or stupid Mars or what humanity is going to do - we don't deserve it, we were made for this planet and we destroyed it. I wanted to only live and love Earth, I don't really want to get to a very old age, I just don't. And I am not really sure if I wanna sentence my kids and grandkids to death since the day they will be born, especially when whole existence is meaningless. Now, I don't know if you are religious but for atheists like me, it's the pretty bleak outlook on life since that's all you ever gonna get. To me, my precious years are behind me and the loss of my family (my parents mostly) and eventually my spouse and everyone I know is not worth living for nor to grace my future family with similar pain. We are all just a bunch of chemicals and proteins outsmarted by a damn molecule that wants to preserve itself, it doesn't care about the suffering and humans who should care don't care enough - no dignified exit allowed, force you to work for useless currency that is human construct, therefore, wasting your precious time here.

Does evolution allow us to become immortal? If immortality was viable then evolution would have given it to use already? Not keep coming up with ways for bacteria, cancer, and viruses to evolve and essentially regulate human activity. Then again, if immortality is real then wouldn't time travel become existent also and we would have already had the first immortal come back and visit us? Also, I don't think we are ever clear from a World War 3 occurring.

On a more positive note: Once AI is fully developed which I think is in reach now. Couldn't Artificial Intelligence find the "cure" for immortality. Additionally, how far off are we from becoming cyborgs? That could also happen in ways where we integrate with robots and live for hundreds of years or more. The possibilities are vast.

@Person 12

Immortality is useless for evolution, it's not due to regulation but animals that eventually die are more valuable as the resources needed can be distributed to their offspring instead which would be better at adaptation. And in short, evolution didn't come up with anything, it has no reasoning, no intellect or goal, it just IS. And cyborg bodies....damn... call me back if you figure out how to perfectly make all artificial organs, you can't just stitch head on manikin body and hope for the best.

LEV is a nice theoretical concept, but I don't think one should try to specify a date. That's not how things will happen.

It will be gradual process. Think back, what year did people stop to die from bacterial infection? It will not happen to all the people at the same time, for all types of the disease, and there will be corner cases that will take much longer.

If you want to make predictions, I much rather hear that by the year 2035 the average life expectancy in United States will 102 years. That we can check and it avoids false negatives.

Bangladesh reached LEV in the seventies. That is, they were able to increase their life expactancy more than one year per year.

Nobody can make assumptions as science is not linear. It can spike or fall based on recent findings or breakthroughs. However, I believe it should occurs faster than slower as communication is much more broad in the past. More people are aware. And normally science and technology expounds at more of an exponential rate. Smart phones have only been around a decade or so, and a lot of high-tech research is confidential. I mean Facebook already has/is working on ways to read your mind to promote marketing and business.

Person12,

Pretty much this. There are a lot of ways progress can increase or slow down dramatically. Unfortunately while the knowledge gained is on more of an exponential trajectory, translating that knowledge to something in the clinic really isn't. We can certainly hope for breakthrough designations and fast tracks for potential drugs, but yeah. That said, I personally wouldn't be as arrogant as some other people and try to boldly declare what we will or won't have 30-50 years from now. Only time will tell. More funding should bring more research, much more knowledge, and hopefully more translational results.

Medicine doesn't grow at an exponential rate, medicine isn't smartphones, funding won't miraculously increase knowledge about the body. You know some problems aren't solved by throwing money at it when the knowledge and possibilities aren't there.

Except, you know, more money means more that can be dispersed to more labs that weren't previously able run due to lack of funds. More people working on more problems across the board, should increase the knowledge obtained. Crazy thought, I know.

And some stuff isn't in labs at all :O just exists as an uncertain concept and with uncertain concepts you get no funds.

Hence the need for more money for basic research. I think people forget how important basic research really is.

"Medicine doesn't grow at an exponential rate, medicine isn't smartphones, funding won't miraculously increase knowledge about the body. You know some problems aren't solved by throwing money at it when the knowledge and possibilities aren't there."

Wait.. how far has medicine come in the past two hundred years compared to the thousands of years prior that humans have been around? Medicine is found on technology and advances. CT scans, Antibiotics, implants, prosthetic, robotic hearts, etc..

Peter Lind said:

"Think back, what year did people stop to die from bacterial infection? It will not happen to all the people at the same time, for all types of the disease, and there will be corner cases that will take much longer."

"If you want to make predictions, I much rather hear that by the year 2035 the average life expectancy in United States will 102 years. That we can check and it avoids false negatives."

That's totally non-sense. By definition, LEV is an aggregate measure, like life expectancy (indeed, it's based on life expectancy). So there are no corner cases, nor types of diseases, and it's as predictable as life expectancy is.

@Person 12
You mean the robotic heart from which you can't live forever anyway? CT scans that are imperfect because they themselves add to the cancer chance, antibiotics that are slowly failing? Even with that, you keep forgetting you are fixing organic material about which we have only bare knowledge. We still would be doing invasive procedures to the body, even in 10-30 years, which is still damn primitive and you all expect sci-fi technology in such a short amount of time.

The first SENS uncomplete therapies are going to clinical trials within 3-5 years as Aubrey said in other interviews, meaning they will reach market in the 2030s, that's why he is betting on 2035 for LEV. SENS therapies will even rejuvenate people in their 70s or 80s as long as they are in good health.

Also, medicine isn't exponential only because of the FDA. No matter how fast you bring a lab discovery into a robust prototype ready for clinical trials, its the clinical trials who are too damn long and expensive. From lab to market it is around 15 years. This 15 years is incompressible, unless the FDA get reformed hugely, which I doubt. Even if we get super powerfull AI which can discover or build a cure for something in only a few weeks, we still have the long clinical trials. Imagine if an automaker have to test a car for 15 years before being allowed to sell it to people.

@Jonathan Weaver - you aren't in good health when you are 70 or 80, you already have some of the diseases of old age (high blood pressure, weak heart etc)

Also pretty much, medicine isn't tech, basically what you said.

Ray Kurzweil is 71 and in good health, no cancer, no diabete, still walking/running. It's not because you have lots of wrinkles that you can't be healthy inside (organs).

He has diabetes I believe.

Dokuganryu - you would be pure comedy if it weren't so tragic.

You should go to pubmed and type in "ageing" in the search bar & then take a look at the graph on the right hand side, which shows how many papers were published under that term for any given year. (After much trial & error I found that ageing with an "e" yielded the biggest catch of papers, with no major publications slipping through, though you do also get some filler like beef or concrete ageing for example. I've been doing this weekly for five years now & it's a great way to keep on top of things and certainly get a perspective on the trends)

Now it might not be exactly exponential, but you cannot argue against a clear acceleration.

Also, how can your crystal ball know that there won't be major breakthroughs & discoveries in the next ten years? Ten years ago Senolytics were an "impossible" & "unsolvable" problem until suddenly they weren't...

@ Jonathan - screw the FDA in which case! That's why people are taking matters into their own hands. The self-experimenting community is growing & organising - check out https://age-reversal.net for example or the forums on longecity.org. We are not going to have to wait on the FDA to get our hands on the most promising therapies :-)

@Chris Linnell bloody hell you think just like me. I always tell the naysayers about breakthroughs and discoveries that have yet to emerge, and a lot of the time this is something they don't take into account

Who said nothing accelerated at all, it did so what? We are still going to die on the clock. Also not really sure how senolytics were considered impossible or unsolvable, I guess I am hard to surprise because it didn't came off to me as impossible idea ever. And yeah, self-experimenting, that sounds reasonable, don't blame doctors if you get cancer through that.

Thank you for the very valuable and much needed perspective Chris Linnel.

@ Scott & Steven - cheers! Where are you guys based? It's always good to meet similar thinkers (Toronto, Canada)

One last point - medicine is 100% pure technology dependent. Every single medicinal advance either in treatment or knowledge has been made possible because of a preceding technological advance. Hell, it took the invention of the microscope for single celled organisms to be discovered, or even the cell for that matter! As the tools get better, so does our knowledge and our ability to intervene. Look at CRISPR (c.2012) and how it is transforming our ability to manipulate our DNA and epigenome. None other than George Church is already claiming to have "cured" ageing in mice using it and is now moving onto dogs. (Though of course until the results are pubished one needs to be very sceptical. After all, extraordinary claims need extraordinary proofs)

I was watching Dr. Phil last week (honestly, I almost never watch it). Anyway, they had this woman who kept on insisting some middle east terrorist were trying to kill her through gassing her apartment. On the show, even through Phil was using logic on her about her crazy ideas about a group trying to kill her, she kept arguing his point. So, Phil wrote on the black board, "yea, but" which she is always countering some frivolous argument.

The doctor did have an environmentalist check for mold and there was above average amount, so the show was working on getting rid of this. But they also had her see a specialist (physchologist).

This woman is using similar logic (or lack of) as Dokuganryu:) I would LOVE to be his age. So many wonders to see in the next few decades w/o fearing for your health.

@Peter - Thanks! It takes positivity to make the impossible real, which is then taken for granted by the very same people who initially claimed for it to be impossible! ;-)

Yeah I am the crazy one and illogical. As far I know George Church didn't claimed he cured aging as aging is not one simple thing. Crispr is mostly effective in embryos, not fully developed human beings. To do reality check for you guys, we are still early in for the rejuvenation therapies and it won't work as in scifi that suddenly you are 20 again. Look at stem cells for example - you can't inject them into tissue and hope they will fix stuff, that's not how it works, it needs right signaling and it also takes some time for them to take effect if at all and mostly they get swept by immune system and do fuck all. There are also quiescent cells and tissues, no new cells created (heart i think is one of those). It's hard not to fear for your health when your own body is slowly killing you and you know, we are mortal so naturally you aren't quite thrilled about being dead forever. Now, I realize we as humans have disgustingly inflated ego and think us special as well going so far to create society as denial of death and listening to genes as primitive monkeys we are so we throw into this Hell even more innocent people and then are surprised some of us aren't doing as well. Anyway, we are dumb monkeys and we will forever be dumb monkeys that grasp at straws forever. There is sadly one truth, we are here just to propagate genes in mindless process of evolution and that's how it is and always will be.

Hi there! Just a 2 cents. This is great news.. phase 3 cannot come soon enough. Positivity is important but you now the old saying 'let's be real' (and not kid ourselves and dream in technicolor). OSKM is already a sign we are accelerating, but this needs to happen, like BioViva hTERT...otherwise it's vaporware. You can promise the moon, sun, and stars; but, does not mean you can hold them and fulfil them.
I think it's important to dose optimism towards realism, - nuancing, to not be pessimistic (because many things will get you down), but realism doesn'T fit 'square' optimism - or - pessimism, it falls inbetween; and right now, aging research is 'in between'; so I try to meet it Half-way. I think there is also a certain credulity about what it takes to reverse aging (I and many others have been here long enough to know that aging is such a complex thing, and why only 50% chance of reaching LEV...well, at least..it'S better than 0%...1 chance out of 2 is enormous to achieve something so huge (when other things have less than 0.000000000000000000000000001% snowball's chance in hell)...but, still, 1 chance out of 2; not 2 out of 2, thus a coin throw - face/odds. It might never happen. But we have to keep positive that we will get health improvements; maybe not LEV in our lifetime; Hopefully, we hope, that we will, us hopefuls, to hopefully get LEV (fingers crossed/.....hoping) - Before we die.

The younger ones are the ones who end up obtaining this if it becomes available, older people must tough their run, thus obtain health therapies to coast/survive up until its creation. In 30 years, we may some forms of therapy, that truly reverse some elemnents of aging - but, even there, the sceptic in me doubts it - for all my hopeful positivity (aging is That complex). As some said, it takes 15 years to sell a 'car'/put to market...and FDA,bs...it's like, so effin long that by the time it comes, you are too old/late. If we tough 30 years, we could get some new stuff for sure; I so hope that somehow we can combine SENS, OSKM, epigenetic tinkering, AGEs removal, AI-nanobot wahtever, yeah...that makes a looott of therapies to do. This way we would have 'all our bases covered', would this mean, LEV, I stil doubt it -it could mean a longevity of 30 years extra; and that is truly great too (of course not LEV).
We can reverse aging, but making it happen in a real body, is a whole different story and with all the problems (finance, FDA, slowmo progress in some areas, trial failures, it's like we Keep on Trying..and keep on failing - trillions of dollars thrown at disease, albeit not much money thrown at REjuvenation - but even there..there is progress but it's slow, not that fast...they have millions of dollars..it's still slowmo. Hence, why it's better to focus on health improvement - if we could live to 120 by therapise, all of us, it would be, already, a great achievement in biogerontology science/medecine/humanity.

''Work expands as time expands, and fills it as time goes''. Always More work...more failed attemps, but we are finding new things..it's just already 40 yaers of medical science and we are still 'very late' on everything - senescence/senolytics/antioxidants/stem cell/epigenome/'research for research'..etc. all this take Decades to come aroudn/'happen'..(many) decades we don't have.

Despite all this, I still being optimistic on health improvement - not as much on aging though (I Want to be...but the portrait does not paint that..OSKM/SENS/Stem cell/hTERT/epigenetic reversal...make it happen otherwise will be mostly health improvements, even in 20 years, if each step takes 5-10 years each). That sounds truer that maybe in the year 2075, we would have more than 1 out of 2 chancs of reaching LEV...but we would be (and will be) old (or dead), by then. So must happen Much Before that - science has 50-75 years max more from now to solve this (it has already 'spent past 50 years' studying and trying) - otherwise 90% of people now are gone by then, LEV would then happen in 2100s+, makes more sense. Also, we still don't know if the True reversal of biological age can reverse epigenomic cell, Truly..it's a epigenetic reversal (OSKM) but cell identity/signature remains 'aged'..only if the cell can continue dividing/replicating infinitely like a cancer cell..otherwise senescence will happen (replicative senescence); and 'replacing' cells may not be enough (like stem cells) to thwarth the problem of accumulating senescent & apoptosing cells with age. Plus, there is the old - you must 'start young'...we want to believe that old people could 'go back to 20'..but nothing say that that is possible (epiclock only suggest it for now..and the 'rewind to young self'..does not seem straight forward..like that), meaning we really have to crack to code to Truly reverse aging in old people; otherwise they accumulated too much age/tabs/division/mutations/etc...thus irreversible. Gotta start young age/mid-age max...the curve show the mortality will rise even so and it's not 'you deage by 1 year...each subsequent year...so you are reversing age..every year (like Benjamin Button))...there is nothing that shows that and even if we did reverse 1 years, each year, thus negative reverse (de)aging...nothing says we can keep on doing that forever and it will work - body won't allow it, it would need serious epigenomic rewiring. Or rather, the 'extent' of this reversability is Limited..we could do it maybe 30 years...tops..not a 1000 years..but let's continue hope for the best and keep our fingers crossed; just not be fooling self (imm*rtality/eternal life is still 100% taboo scifi bs...for many and many Oppose it and wanna ban it/regulate/law it'...ethics/morality...could spark world war 3 over imm*rtality (who gets it, and who doesn't/perishes (always, the rich ones priviledged in capitalistic countries, poor people don't stand much chance of getting this fine therapies -just ridiculous price/inaccessible/so costly - Life = Money = Time; get rich quick ..etc).

Just a 2 cents.

@CANanonymity
At the beginning it will be about adding gracefully and extending the health span. That already a biggie, but far from LEV. Just keeping old people alive a bit longer and reversing or mitigating some symptoms. The moment the max lifespan exceeds 125 it we see a re versal of multiples symptoms we will be in the uncharted territory. If we reach it by 2035 it will take more time to actually price it.

"So there are no corner cases, nor types of diseases"

Let's say we find a cure for cancer that can be manufactured easily and doesn't require FDA approval in 2035. Life expectancy would perhaps jump 2-3 years in 12 months when people find out about it.

Is that what people mean when they say LEV 2035?

I don't think so, what they mean is a point in time by which they will be able to escape death by aging - for good. If they reach that year, they will be fine. In reality, it could be that they will die of a disease that will not be cured by 2035.

If you say that life expectancy will be 102 years in US by 2035. People pretty much know what to expect. They can compare with the life expectancy we have today. They know they are not guaranteed to live that long, but they have some idea of what to expect if they are 92 years in 2035, both at that time and in the future given the progress that has happened earlier.

I can't believe there is person like CANanonymity! Using his brain correctly.

@Peter Lind:

Cancer is part of aging. So, if you cure cancer, yes, you are curing aging. Also, neither cancer nor other aspects of aging will be completely cured in 12 months, it will be gradual, so your hypothetical case is unrealistic and it don't dismiss LEV as a good measure of antiaging progress. In summary, when we reach LEV, I'm pretty sure we will have accomplished a great amount of rejuvenation already.

@Chris Linnell: I'm based in sunny England (sunny today anyway!). I like your posts because they are positive and optimistic, but not in a dreamy unrealistic way. A PMA has been shown to aid health anyway.

@CANanonymity you are way too pessimistic and negative

@Scott Emptage - he is reasonable, you aren't though, the majority of you aren't.

Lol, why do you even post here? Nothing is possible. Move on.

Because I enjoy watching clueless people with heir head buried in the sand pretending everything's gonna be okay. I also enjoy your miserable attempts to try to argue with me although you weren't able to provide any reasonable counter-argument towards the facts I pointed out. I guess meme gene therapy or meme stem cells is what you hold onto I suppose lol - nah, in fact, I have no damn idea what you actually believe, but I imagine it must be really naive.

@Ham and Scott Emptage: A few days ago guess who called Ray Kurzweil a 'lunatic' on here? The same person defending CANanonymity's endless negativity. Maybe the comments section should be divided up into negative and positive reactions... (Not that Reason would have time for that of course).

And never said nothing is possible, I am saying that the true substantial stuff that could make you live 100+ or more won't be possible in our lifetime, well maybe our kids can enjoy being gene edited since birth so will have things like genetic defects edited out and possibly added genes for longevity, but that's all.

Uh huh. If that's true, it sure says a lot about how sad your life is :). But I'm sure you'll get banned from here sooner or later since you pretty much do nothing but derail everything you comment on.

There's no miserable attempts. Like someone mentioned before, all you can say is "Yeah, but". No arguing with that level IQ.

Yeah, meme therapy. I forgot there haven't been any gene therapies approved yet ;).

Calling others naive...You're the perfect example of the pot calling the kettle black. Keep going though, it seems like you're providing entertainment for others.

@Steven B - so you basically only care if people will tell you what you want to hear and it is pleasant. you don't really want to use your brain nor educate yourselves on things like stem cells and gene therapy, crispr possibilities and what goes wrong in human body overall. Yes, Ray Kurzweil is lunatic. I don't find behavior towards science as it was a new religion normal. I find it especially interesting when he predicts shit where he could still be alive, as in giving himself some hope. It's clinging on faint hope just as you cling onto believing in God for some people. Same shit. I can pretend unicorn exists but it will not make it true.

Doesn't matter if some gene therapies were approved or not, the ones that people think about what could be approved will never work the way you think it will. Just as Chris said how George Church claimed to cure aging (which to me seems like someone is not well informed enough) as the only thing George Church focused on were heart defects occurring in a certain breed of dogs.
And if you wanna keep ignoring facts and what's left there to solve then you're welcome to do so. Apparently no matter what I say about the complexities reach your deaf ears. I should really stop caring though since I won't be here when you all will be sitting in nursing homes shitting your pants.

Oh, ok. You do you ;)

If you're so pessimist, that therapies won't be there in time for you, there is still a last chance, that is cryonics.

Cryonics is certainly an option if you are from USA, UK and are filthy rich. I don't live anywhere near any of the cryonics facilities nor I believe they get to me in time before the damage happens as long as legal issues around corpses will continue.

@Dokuganryu your pessimism is not based on anything scientific or relating to actual progress, your acting on emotions and lashing out and that does not help matters at all

@ Scott - yeah, because I guess I am talking about nothing - stem cells, crispr, immunotherapy, all made up stuff that has nothing to do with actual progress. Sure.

@Dokuganryu you really should follow LEAF more

also restorbio is now in phase 3 of their trial process in case you didn't know.

https://www.leafscience.org/restorbio-announces-phase-3-human-trials/

immunotherapy, all made up stuff that has nothing to do with actual progress.

I meant your lashing out. btw immunos are showing lots of promise, as is crispr etc.

I followed LEAF, the rejuvenation roadmap is useless. Yeah, immunotherapies are cool and hopefully they will work for more aggressive forms of cancer (I hope so), but crisprs as tool to edit developed adults is just hilarious, it's not gonna happen - maybe few things here and there but it won't make you suddenly live till 200.

@Dokuganryu well I'm not that interested in crispr although I find it interesting. I am more interested in the hallmarks of aging/damage repair approacg to aging. LEV is about stepping stones, plus early adopters can already boost NAD+, inhibit mTOR, and take senolytic compounds like fisetin and q+d etc. there is plenty or reason to believe that LEV is possible in our lifetimes. its all about buying time not just automatcaly making people immortal.

NAD + is a glorified supplement, same goes for the rest. It won't save you from disease, you'll just live a few more years in old raisin status.

It is a bit ambiguous to me which program Aubrey means they shut down (I think it's ALT, but could also be WILT. Presumably not OncoSENS itself!) Also the OncoSENS link doesn't work

@ Dokuganryu its a shame you are so negative and (from my view) overly opposed to this field. its true that I cant know for a fact that this will happen in time for us, just as you cant know for a fact that all of this wont work or happen in time for us. one can only speculate based on where things stand now. maybe read this https://www.leafscience.org/not-in-my-lifetime/

plus what about future breakthroughs and discoveries? 50 years is a long time to claim nothing will change

@ Justin Aubrey mentioned in an interview that he was more optimistic towards immunotherapy instead of WILT

@ Scott - Yeah it's not about being what to reasonably expect, it's about me being opposed to the field! >:( And even if in 50 years something would come out, you can't benefit from it. You will have irreversible aging damage at that point which you would need to address before getting to that point, therefore, having access to substantial therapies (specific ones targeting quiescent cells and tissues) before that happens. Those things aren't senolytics, metformin or anything, those things would need to be properly handled stem cells or absolutely perfect gene therapy.

@Dokuganryu when did I say you 'were' opposed to it? I said you seem to me to be against it with your past comments.

And even if in 50 years something would come out, you can't benefit from it

and how do you know that? do you have a crystal ball with 100% accuracy

You will have irreversible aging damage at that point which you would need to address before getting to that point, therefore, having access to substantial therapies (specific ones targeting quiescent cells and tissues) before that happens. Those things aren't senolytics, metformin or anything, those things would need to be properly handled stem cells or absolutely perfect gene therapy.

because its not as if 50 years from now we wont likely have those capabilities is it?

again you are acting as if you know all this as if it is 100% fact.

I base my opinions on progress not emotions. and if you want to think that way then be my guest because I'm not waisting anymore time on you. good bye and good luck in the future :)

Lol capabilities, damn it's like the 90's again when we imagined 2000's to have flying cars. Yep it's useless to argue further, you are stuck up thinking we will have sci-fi biotech so it's no use to arguing over it. Feel free to laugh at my grave afterward but I am pretty sure you will be dead way before me. And trust me, you aren't basing your opinions on progress, if you would you wouldn't talk nonsense.

@scott
I got the impression they were taking about WILT. and honestly, WILT sound ludicrously hard to achieve

Trollololol

Stop feeding it folks, it keeps coming back if it knows there is a regular supply of food.

@Steve Hill hi steve yeah I tried to have a sensible debate but it wouldn't happen which is why I ended it. thanks for the heads up mate :)

When you get off your high horse, make sure you alert everyone at CRISPR therapeutics, and similar companies that all the gene therapies they're working on in their pipeline are useless and won't work in adults. I'm sure they'll value the opinion of an uneducated internet armchair scientist. It's totally likely you know something they don't ;)

It's hilarious that you talk about reasonable expectations, then go on to point out that cryonics is an option. Like there isn't even a reasonable expectation for that to work. There's literally zero reason to think that the people who are already cryopreserved will be revived in the future. You're beyond naive if you think it's an option, and the fact that you dare call anyone else naive is hilarious. Truly nauseating and eyeroll inducing.

Today I learned that ~200k for Alcor, which can be paid for with a life insurance policy = filthy rich.

Scott, Steven, and everyone else are spot on in their assessment of you.

Well someone here pointed out it's an option, it's definitely better than getting burned or buried for some. I don't believe it will work, certainly not for people who already died and got cryopreserved. And you constantly keep misunderstanding me so it's useless to continue explaining what I meant because you simply refuse to understand. But it's okay, today I learned if you have concerns, valid doubts and are cautious it means you are for sure trolling. I wonder how many of you are just sitting on your ass, not doing CR, not exercising and keep eating unhealthy bullshit because you believe science will solve it for you. All of this, including your ignorance of irreversible aging damage, points to me you actually aren't doing any research, you just read what LEAF optimistically feeds you with and continue arguing with smartphones making progress or Wright brothers coming up with flight although it's absolutely different. Also yes, for Alcor you need to be filthy rich as you need to move to the area where Alcor is if you want bulletproof cryopreservation, but that's offtopic as it still doesn't solve the fact you get a disease and die. Don't forget to pop your useless resveratrol and NAD + while you're at it as well as going to inject yourself with stem cells that disappear in few days.

@Cuberat he said its likely that WILT wont be needed because immunos are working better I think.

No one is misunderstanding you. You're just ignorant and unintelligible. It's not like you're privy to information that anyone else hasn't or can't access.. I know, I know, you once spoke to an Alzheimer's researcher so now you're an expert. By the way, nice assumption about others here, and their lifestyles and knowledge... truly comical, since it's coming from a petulant child that's constantly crying on the internet.

Also, nothing about cryopreservation requires you to be filthy rich. If that's what you think being filthy rich means, it only reinforces how small and deluded your worldview is.

@Ham, please listen to Steve Hill's comment. Your comments are way too intelligent and make way too much sense for some people!

Yeah, you're right. It probably would be for the best.

Whenever you encounter people like this always ask yourself one question "Which opinion should I give the most merit to, the researchers working in the field who are doing the work, publishing data, and giving the interviews OR some rando on the internet who is clearly trolling and trying to make out they are a victim when they get called on their bullshit?

So please folks, move on and stop feeding such people.

And to bring this mostly pointless thread back on topic, we have another interview with Aubrey for you to enjoy which was taken at the recent Berlin Undoing Aging Conference.

https://www.leafscience.org/an-interview-with-dr-aubrey-de-grey/

Please note any trolling in the comments at LEAF will simply be deleted so best not bother ;)

You're literally constantly taking me up my words and twist it however you like :'D Including poking at me because I mentioned I talked about Alzheimer and brain issues with the researcher, I guess educating yourself is a bad thing or being curious is also a bad thing - never claimed it made me expert at all. However, the things I am reading about human body and aging makes me at LEAST AWARE how much we don't know yet and what needs to be solved or if it's able to be solved at all. Filthy rich and cryopreservation - that is just constant attacking, it has nothing to do with you arguing me. It's just you being picky and resulting to offtopic attacks. You don't know my life, you even don't know from what country I am and what wages and access to things we have, so you can't understand what we consider rich and what not - it's highly subjective. You think my generation that barely has money for building a house can afford Alcor, including moving near the facility to USA? Keep dreaming. Like really dunno if you presume I am from USA or something and think that therefore I have the same financial scope as you.

>90's again when we imagined 2000's to have flying cars.

Agree.

Thanks Dokuganryu and CANanonymity for the comments.

Re Everyone, let's make peace, not war, we are all in this together; we may have divergent opinions, and that's ok/good. Let's keep professional and friendly, with respect. Let's not get too emotional and do name-calling/insulting, nothing gotten out of that. It's true..myself, I am more pessimistic than others, that's have nearly died (from disease) - it changed me and I was once (before that) far more optimistic, but when you nearly die, your outlook changes afterwards. You can very Optimistic (even after, surviving your ordeal), but when you brush with death, your optimism is cut is 99% of the time afterwards. You Know that life can end, faster than you thought possible and Ever imagined (because 'it only happens to others'...no, it can happen to you - Too. Stay positive just don't kid yourself). You can feel sad, doom and gloom, of couse (when going through life altering event - or, nearly, life ending). And then, it's hard to think things will turn out great (it's a bit the old cat sipping milk in bowl...cat comes up to milk bowl...but milk is boiling..and cat screams/writes in pain..cat is 'marked' by this event..and never want to approach milk bowl again...next time, another milk bowl..and the cat is VERY wary and not wanting...cat think milk bowl is boiling milk...yet, this time the milk is cold and drinkable; cat missed a chance by prebias/affected from first time encouter giving negative lasting image of milk bowl). Well this, much worse than this, milk bowl is lava/acid/ poison...enough to kill you. Sometimes, I have discussion about the food I eat...with my family..I feel bad 'telling them what to eat or not'..it's not my decision..but, sometimes, when they tell me 'this is good'..I listen to them, but I sometimes tell them this food is not great for you...I don't impose/have no right..they decided whatever they eat...but a cake my taste great...but if it's bad..it's still poison with a bit of sugar sprinkled on it (thus still toxic stuff for your health). ''Rat poison with sugar sprinkled on it...is still rat poison''. Might seem tasty and sweet..but you are taking your chances eating it.

So with that said, let's work together and bring a possible future of health and longevity; let's respect each other and work together, not against one another - Even if we may have different opinions. Because opinions are like onions, to each their own (does this stop the world from continuing/spinning..
no. The medical/gerontology community is like a big family, spats happen, you don't always agree in your family members - they are family, but may have different opinions - in that 'divided' family..does this mean the family 'should end'..I think not, true families go above their differences and reconciliate/share/acknowledge their differences - and keep together as families through thick and thin; love is that glue that holds it/goes above all that. A bit like a couple whom 'divorces' over 'irreconciliable differences'..let's not divorce, and go beyond that and petty insults. Sometimes separating might be the best option, but on aging/health/life, we Need All of Us to 'make it' (alive)). We (almost) all want to live long/hope to not die or suffer illness, and we all want to be as optimistic as possible to live longest...and it's not a 'yeah..but', it's that there are factors we must considerate about our future/to not be blind and credule/gullible. I think most people are, certainly, not blind(ed), and very informed. We have 'burnt' before and so it is why we may hold more negative feelings - if things were going SO great...those feelings would be non-existent and, indeed, 99% of people would be saying : ''Tomorrow - eternal life - it's happening''. But we are not there yet, so, we don't want to spread false hopes and deceive people...and I'm trying to nuance, between just negativism or just positivism.

Over time, reading so many NHI medical papers, you get a sense of what is going on...and you have a mixture of ''Wow, we could do this do that...it looks fabulous/it's Psyched/Hyped'',,but then 2 weeks later some other papers come and say that 'there are problems'...it's why it's harder to keep positive. Ithink most people want to be more positive, it's just that dose of realism (pessimism) you can creep back in - you doubt...you are human...and not a fool/deluding self. Still, like Reason, doing here, keep on spreading the good word and advocating to make rejuvenation/health improvement happen is best in-between to accelerated funding/speed up concretization, FDA acception/bypassing and therapy access/marketing to public, sooner. I apologize for my pessimism.

Just a 2 cents.

I have huge sympathy for Dokuganryu as he does not even seem to enjoy his youth, just thinks about dying.

I agree, if you live in a country where it is difficult to live a reasonable standard of living, let alone hoping to do cryonics later in life, it would be tough. But blasting everyone because you feel helpless being in your lower economic state and country is not right. And, in my opinion, within your 50 years of living, the world most likely will have access to treatment for aging. I think you are just bored and wanted to get peoples reaction.

Did we not have a female troll a year ago? She pretty said the same crap. Yep, since that time, we have John Mellon providing a ton of funds into the anti-aging field, and we have also made some additional advancement in the immunology field for cancer and plus advancements.

*facepalm*

Dokuganryu - Regarding alcor: if you're young and relatively healthy, a full-coverage policy for full body preservation, including yearly dues, costs around $6 per day. It's not necessary to buy a house and move to arizona to be next to the facility, though that likely does improve recovery probability.

Remember that perfect is the enemy of better. "Not ideal but still maybe recoverable after being frozen" is better than "definitely not recoverable due to destruction." The question is whether or not your probability estimates justify the cost.

If you live in a country or location where $6 per day qualifies as rich, I'm sorry; that's a separate important problem we as a species need to fix.

As far I know the insurance increases with your age, that's another concern but nevermind, it won't work if they won't have straight access to you as you die.

Dokuganryu - The cost is set when you get the policy; if you get it early, the premiums can be lower because of the longer expected time you'll be holding the policy. Because I got my policy late in life, it cost me more - on the order of $9 per day - but the cost will not go up as I age.

Regarding your comment, "nevermind, it won't work if they don't have straight access to you as you die", I think it's important to be strict and clear about what you're saying. If you're saying "There is zero chance of recovery unless I live next to the facility", then I think you're mistaken.

However, if you're saying "The odds are too low to be worth the cost unless I live next to the facility", then you and I have no real disagreement on this topic. It may very well not be worthwhile to you; the cost is non-zero, and the probability of recovery from cryogenic preservation is pretty low. If the cost doesn't outweigh your utility function and estimated probabilities, then cryogenic preservation isn't for you. There's nothing wrong with that.

When I computed my probability estimates, the results were depressingly small. Cryogenic preservation is extremely unlikely to be successful. There are a lot of unknowns and a lot of ways you can get a less-than-optimal preservation. That said, when I weighed those small gains against the cost and my available income, I decided to do it anyway. Not everyone will come to the same decision.

Dokuganryu - Regarding people not doing research, being unhealthy, following the hype of the day, and trusting in medicine to fix the problem for them:

There are unfortunately many people who fall into this category. However, it's not everyone.

- Some of us have been aware of and involved in life extension work for a very long time.

- Some of us donate large amounts of actual money to help push along life extension research.

- Some of us are more current on the technologies and drawbacks than others.

- Some of us are actually doing our best to maintain our dying bodies, trying to eat well and maintain our health.

- Some of us don't expect medical technology to be fast enough, and have better than 50% odds of dying before age 100.

Personally, I don't do the things I do because I "expect medical technology to let me live forever"; I do the things I do because it improves my probability of living to age 100. I don't follow and donate to life-extension research because I'm a mindless drone who bought into the hype and supplement of the week; I do those things because I've thought long and hard about the problems and how to attack them.

Sure, the problem is *really* hard, and it's going to take a long time. But I've been around long enough to know that "really hard" problems are still just problems, and you solve them the same way you solve any other problem: one step at a time. It just takes more steps, some of which I'm helping fund. I'm not the only one.

Are there any steps you're willing to help fund? There are more groups than just SENS that could use your help.

It's the later about cryonics. And I am funding some of the research but due to the fact how money is thin i might rather use it as living my life before i eventually end it. You see, I would love to live forever or a very long time, but seeing as that is not a possibility I am just basically enjoying few years of my young life and then I am gone. And it's not because I am depressed or edgy or anything. I am simply not ok with the human predicament and beyond my 20's I have no reason to stíck around, so that's that. If I wouldn't have rather unfortunate up bringing, I might have dedicated life into how to solve hard stuff like cancer or how to grow new organs, but oh well I am not time traveler.

Dokuganryu: I'm sorry to hear that. I hope things get better for you. I found as I got older that I had much more control and power over my life, and that helped me be much more comfortable with living longer. The human predicament isn't great, but at this point in my life I think it's worth trying to improve, for myself and others.

Time is much more on your side than mine should you choose to use it. Thanks for helping as best you can.

Dokuganryu- You stated in previous messages you were going to outlive a couple other people.

What us humans are striving for may not ever be possible, then again it may become a reality sooner rather than later. Why are we smarter than every other creature on earth?

Why do we strive to make essentially "Heaven on Earth"? If we could live forever and be happy forever would that defeat the purpose of life? Would it be pointless? Granted even if immortality comes about people will still eventually die of some cause and have to worry about other issues.

The "unthinkable" or "unimaginable" becomes imaginable and practical every day. Doesn't matter what level its on- from video games, to medical technology its progressing and its making things possible that wouldnt have ever even been thought attainable 50 years ago.

Life is pointless precisely because its finite. And about the other stuff, dunno ask evolution, but it is mindless process so we won't get answer. Also as time goes on for me it's way worse I don't want to find my spoustě dead one day or seeing my parents dying. It was my worst childhood nightmare and sadly it will come to pass.

Still feeding the troll? Zzzz...

Someone had constructive and civil talk with me earlier, if you can't handle it then I don't know what to say to you.

This thread is rather an embarrassment isn't it? If you disagree with this Dokuganryu person you are free to say so, or to ignore them, but what's with all the people mocking and attacking them for expressing their opinion? So much for a community of reasonable, level headed science enthusiasts. For goodness sake, even DeGrey says there's a ten percent chance nobody alive will live to see LEV. It's perfectly okay to be skeptical about ideas such as these, and I say so as a long time supporter of this research. Becoming angry because someone doesn't believe we'll live to see the field fully mature is not an indication that you're confident in your own opinions, as you seem to think. On the contrary, it suggests you harbour unconscious anxiety that we will fail. Otherwise, there'd be no reason to lash out.

You cannot demand another's respect, nor should we insist that others part with their skepticism over claims so bold as ours. Time will tell who is correct in their predictions, and hopefully sooner rather than later. In the meantime, work hard and support the work being done by others, and refrain from petty arguments with those who disagree with you.

I think Dokuganryu is MsKaoshin.

Also the exact writing style of u/EverydayHalloween from Reddit.

Our systems are already partially replacing themselves. It is essentially identify, destroy, replace, self-destruct. We just have to enhance it to include all and immortality will be ezpz.

@Ben, there's a difference between expressing a dissenting opinion and trolling. If you read Dokuganryu's posts from when he first started on this site a couple of months ago you'll realise he's doing the latter. A troll's goal is to bring chaos into a community by getting its members to turn onto each other. He's succeeding. Fightaging, like pretty much all sites that debate emotional stuff like politics, religion, or even football has its fair share of disrupters. It's up to those of us who are here for the constructive conversation to avoid getting sucked into what's anything but.

If avoiding being sucked in is the objective it would appear the endeavour has been a failure.

I haven't read all this person's posts, but none that I have read have seemed troll-ish to me, especially as they are fielding personal criticism from numerous other commenters. However, if they're truly trying to disrupt the site you guys should ignore them, and not engage them for close to one hundred posts.

@Ben, Exactly, he's succeeding because he knows what buttons to push. If there are dozens of personal attacks directed at him but not at other commenters who also disagree with the occasional hyperoptimism on this site it's for a reason. And really... If you think that god (or evolution) doesn't exist sure let your opinion known, but if the church goers (or Darwin Club members) don't come round please stop hassling them in their own home. It's rude and, after months of the same, bound to aggrieve them. Look up this person's first posts: he got everyone's attention - and sympathy - repeating ad nauseam that he was really really hoping that his mum would make it (sad emojis and all). He then spent the next few months rebutting every single positive development in the field with factoids that only someone who knows the community very well could have come up with. There's no naive mummy's boy there. Trolls are a sad internet reality that cause psychological harm. Mr D. here is textbook.

Judging by the Reddit link Steve left, it's fairly obvious what kind of person this is IMO. Barbara is not wrong here.

Im going to cut the politeness and PC crap and just say what I think is on many people's minds here.

Dokuganryu, why the f_ck are you even here? Randomly walking around and spreading negativity. You think you can contributed anything useful to the conversation? You literally have not provided a single constructive argument as to why this or that technology won't work other than "_____ has only had marginal benefits" or "______ hasn't lasted long enough" or "______ is impossible in vivo" and then proclaimed that you have "studied the human body and biology" and that we are just all ignorant. My suspicion based on everything you have said so far, is that you have virtually zero technical knowledge of the underlying biology of aging nor any specific concrete for why something wouldn't work other than "it hasn't/doesn't work, trust me".

Nobody here gives a shit, you are not going to convince anyone that trying to do something about aging is a useless cause. We will all work collectively to tackle this problem in whatever way we can or die trying, and we will, within reason, enjoy what life has to offer in the meantime.

You had a tough life? Ok then, go roll over and die in a ditch, moron. Nobody needs your emotions or negativity here. You yourself admitted that you are not here for constructive discussion or debate (and you have said nothing constructive), and rather just "enjoy watching clueless people with heir head buried in the sand pretending everything's gonna be okay. I also enjoy your miserable attempts to try to argue with me although you weren't able to provide any reasonable counter-argument towards the facts I pointed out."

What "facts" have you pointed out? You only spouted off uninformed opinions. Calling stem cells "laughable" or proclaiming that "rejuvenation roadmap is useless" or putting up strawmen such the claim that CRISPR will magically make everyone live to 200 before "ridiculing" your own strawman.

Not a single one of your responses has delved at all into any of the "biology" or "knowledge of the human body" that you claim to possess. There's nothing to discuss or respond to. Simply listing off some buzzwords and saying "stem cells suck", "immuno therapy useless", isn't an argument.

Plus your writing style is just awfully mediocre. Go get a firmer grasp of the english language and some technical knowledge before you expect anyone to take your seriously.

On that note, go f_ck yourself and go cry at your piece of sh1t mother's funeral, you insufferable, mentally unstable, half literate, trolling b!tch. You're in your early 20s and you've already given up on life? How awfully pathetic.

But whatever, its none of my business. If you wan't to off yourself, more power to you. One less useless c_nt in the human gene pool. Go ahead, kill yourself. Nobody will remember you when you die.

Go wail somewhere else about the "filthy rich". $200,000 is "filthy rich"? LOL.

Tell you what, I'll dedicate my life to becoming financially successful (already well on my way there), contributing to the development of rejuvenation therapies, and enjoying my life in the process, regardless of whether rejuvenation is achieved in time for me or my loved ones. And I won't give a second of thought to cynical, resentful, low intellect pieces of crap like yourself.

You can spend your life being a chronically depressed loser talking about his own suicide in the comments sections of blogs and reddit posts. I hope everyone here ignores you from now on, and I hope you die lonely, unloved, and unwanted. You useless, mentally unstable cunt.